[DTC-E2] WF7202: Short-Term Earthquake Forecasting

Version 1

Overview

This repository contains the Common Workflow Language (CWL) and RO-Crate metadata definition for WF7202, the Short-Term Earthquake Forecasting (STEF) workflow of DTC-E2, developed under the DT-GEO project.

The WF7202 workflow generates short-term earthquake forecasts by combining real-time and high-resolution seismic event catalogs with the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. It enables dynamic, data-driven forecast updates based on the latest seismic activity, contributing to the earthquake digital twin’s predictive capabilities.

Workflow Structure

The workflow integrates data ingestion, forecast computation, and testing components that operate together to produce and validate earthquake forecasts.

1. Workflow Inputs

   • DT7202 – Swiss National Earthquake Catalogue: Regional earthquake catalog provided by the Swiss Seismological Service (SED).
   • DT7203 – EMSC Catalog: European catalog from the EMSC.
   • DT7201 – Short-term Earthquake Forecasts: Previously issued forecast data for model updates.

2. Processing Steps

   • ST720201: Data ingestion from real-time catalog sources.
   • ST720202: Model calibration and ETAS parameter estimation.
   • ST720203: Short-term forecast generation.
   • ST720204: Evaluation and testing using the CSEP framework.
   • ST720205: Forecast visualization and dissemination through a web service.

3. Workflow Outputs

   • DT7201 – Short-term Earthquake Forecasts: Gridded forecast probabilities and simulated catalogs.
   • DT7204 – Forecast Test Results: CSEP testing outputs for model performance assessment.