[DTC-E4] WF7403: Rupture Forecast Workflow

Version 1

Overview

This repository contains the Common Workflow Language (CWL) and RO-Crate metadata definition for WF7403, the Rupture Forecast workflow of DTC-E4, developed under the DT-GEO project.

The WF7403 workflow performs physics-based dynamic rupture simulations to generate a catalog of rupture scenarios for a given fault system. For each scenario, the workflow computes synthetic data such as ground motions, static displacements, and moment-rate release, along with corresponding shakemaps.

In the event of a moderate to large earthquake, WF7403 supports a rapid-response mode that automatically compares real-time seismic and geodetic observations with the precomputed scenario catalog to identify the best-fitting rupture model within minutes to hours after the event.

Workflow Structure

The workflow is organized into two interconnected sub-workflows:

1. A. Catalog Creation Workflow

   • Generates a large ensemble of forward dynamic rupture simulations using SeisSol or SPECFEM3D, producing synthetic observables and storing them in the Simulation Data Lake (SDL).
   • This process typically requires high-performance computing (Tier-0/Tier-1 resources) for up to 100 SeisSol runs, equivalent to ~500,000 core hours.

2. B. Rapid Response Workflow

   • Continuously monitors real-time earthquake catalogs.
   • When an event is detected, it downloads waveform data and performs a scenario-matching analysis against the precomputed catalog in the SDL.
   • Outputs the best-matching dynamic rupture scenario for rapid situational awareness.

Workflow Inputs

• DT7406 – Input files for dynamic rupture simulation: Mesh, velocity model, frictional and medium parameters, and initial stress conditions.
• DT7408 – Seismic and geodetic data: Real-time data streamed from EPOS infrastructures.

Workflow Outputs

• DT7409 – Single Dynamic Rupture Scenario: The best-fitting scenario output from the catalog, including ground-motion and displacement fields.