Pablo Orviz

Develop and implement 1 DTC for Anthropogenic Geophysical Extreme Forecasting (AGEF) with 4 workflow outcomes: forecasting of long-range responses of georeservoirs (TC-AGEF1), forecasting of late responses of georeservoirs (TC-AGEF2), modelling of the largest magnitude (TC-AGEF3), and induced seismic hazard map estimation (TC-AGEF4).

Test the DTC-A through demonstrators at 2 relevant European sites: Strasbourg geothermal site in France (SD12) and KGHM copper ore mine in Poland (SD13).

Develop and implement 1 DTC for data-informed Probabilistic Tsunami Forecasting (PTF) (DTC-T1)

Test the DTC-T1 through demonstrators at 4 relevant sites: Mediterranean sea coast (SD4), Eastern Sicily (SD5), Chilean cost (SD6), and Eastern Honshu coast in Japan (SD7).

Develop and implement 4 DTCs for volcano-related extremes: volcanic unrest (DTC-V1), forecast of volcanic ash clouds and fallout (DTC-V2), lava flows (DTC-V3), and volcanic gases (DTC-V4).

Test the 4 DTC-V through demonstrators at 3 relevant European sites: Mt. Etna in Italy (SD1), and Grímsvötn and Fagradalsfjall in Iceland (SD2 and SD3 respectively).

Provide an integrated, comprehensive, modular modelling and testing framework

Develop multi-scale workflows applicable beyond the identified test-areas enabling improved physical understanding and progress beyond state-of-the-art in the earthquake process.

Develop and implement 6 DTCs covering earthquake-related aspects over long and short time scales

Test the 6 DTC-E at 4 relevant sites: Euro-Med (SD8), Central Apennines and Alto-Tiberina (SD9), Bedretto Lab (SD10) and the Alps (SD11).

The workflow DT-AGEF4 will produce seismic hazard maps related to the nearfuture anthropogenic seismicity (induced or triggered seismicity). The anthropogenic seismicity hazard maps will be related to the time-varying technological factors. The rationales behind the proposed workflow are (Lasocki, S., Proc. Sixth Int. Symp. on Rockburst and Seismicity in Mines, 2005; Lasocki, S. and Orlecka-Sikora, B., Tectonophys., 2008; Orlecka-Sikora, B., Tectonophys., 2008; Lasocki, S., Rockburst Mechanisms, ...

The workflow will primarily focus on estimation of the maximum magnitude using various deterministic and statistical models available in the literature. The workflow consists of 5 steps. The first four steps belong to the CB-AGEF1 and ultimately aim at creation of the advanced seismic catalog. The last 5th step (belonging to the CBAGEF3-1) takes the available hydraulic data and advanced seismicity catalog derived in steps 1-4 and performs the actual assessment of the maximum magnitude. Step 1 is ...

The advanced earthquake catalog is built from existing applications on the EPISODES platform (steps 1, 3, 4) and a newly developed application for phase association (step 2) and an application for catalog homogenization (step 5).

The advanced earthquake catalog is built from existing applications on the EPISODES platform (step 1,3, 4 in Figure 4.2) and a newly developed application for phase association (step 2) and an application for catalog homogenization (step 5). The last application is designed to facilitate the creation of a homogenized earthquake catalog, ensuring consistency across key parameters such as location (X, Y, Z), time (T), and magnitude (M). This is achieved by standardizing various magnitude measurements, ...

The DTC-V4 workflow (WF5401) relies on an atmospheric dispersion model to build the relationship between the plume height and SO2 flux (which taken together are called Eruption Source Parameters, or ESPs) and the SO2 ground concentrations. Here we use FALL3D dispersion model, however as the HMC scheme requires many thousands of forward runs we replace it with an Emulator, a function that approximates the model but runs much faster. So far, a simple interpolate-scale-sum emulator that makes use ...